Europe steel market — Week 2026-W42

The clearest current signal is Eurostat's EU basic-metals producer price index, a supporting indicator, not a physical steel price. It moved from 123.7 in April 2026 O6 to 123.8 in May O5, 123.8 to 124.6 in July O3, and 126.4 in August 2026 O2; three consecutive steps were flat or upward. Assessment: the August reading indicates firmer basic-metals output prices, though it cannot be read as an HRC or scrap transaction price.

On raw materials, iron ore fell to a more than two-year low on 12 October 2026, while higher logistics costs supported scrap in Turkey and Europe A1. Assessment: cheaper ore and firmer scrap freight costs imply divergent input pressure, not a single cost direction.

Demand appears weak: steel sales are falling even as prices rise, and the recent recovery proved short-lived amid Q4 2026 concerns A2. Trade conditions are tightening, with 45 EU import quotas exhausted in the quarter and nine above 90% utilisation A9. Planned stoppages at Ex Ilva's Genova and Novi Ligure sites by 15 November 2026 A7 would remove capacity.

The EU CBAM certificate price was EUR 75.36/tCO2 on 31 March 2026 O9, EUR 75.28 on 30 June O8, then EUR 82.32 on 30 September O7. Project news on an offshore wind installation vessel A3 has no quantified steel demand.

Confidence: medium Limitations: No current physical steel-product prices were supplied, and most evidence is dated or advocacy-based.