China steel market — Week 2026-W41

China's September steel price index reached 771.23, up 1.42% month on month but down 1.49% year on year, with prices rising early in the month before retreating A3. Daily pricing was mixed: the Myspic composite index rose 1.48 yuan/t to 3,499.42 yuan/t on 9 September, with rebar, wire rod and HRC up but cold-rolled coil and medium plate down A4; on 15 September, billet and rebar futures firmed while national rebar, HRC and CRC averages softened A5; on 7 September pricing was mixed amid weaker ferrous futures A6. Coke producers proposed a fifth increase, and mill losses and deeper maintenance cuts pressured margins and output A6. Chinese flat-steel export prices softened for 20–24 September, with firm Gulf quotations and higher US HRC amid tight supply A2. MIIT named steel capacity governance and hydrogen metallurgy as 15th Five-Year Plan priorities, without implementing cuts A1. Assessment: reported mill losses and maintenance suggest supply restraint, but mixed daily signals give no clear direction A5A6.

Confidence: medium Limitations: Current-week (W41) physical steel prices and inventory/output data are absent; latest prices are 7–15 September observations.